George M. McCollister, Ph.D.

mccollister
mccollister
Principal
(913) 981-7200 ext 6

General

Dr. McCollister specializes in econometric and statistical analysis for energy supply planning and calculation of economic damages in civil litigation. He has applied these skills for ten years as a consultant, and for several years as a staff economist at three large investor owned utilities. Examples of his projects include energy demand forecasting, probabilistic energy supply planning, conservation and load management program savings evaluation, econometric modeling to value natural resources, statistical hypothesis testing in discrimination cases, and studies of how health related conditions affect expected worklife. McCollister’s Ph.D. is from UC San Diego, where he studied under nobel laureate Clive Granger.

Work History

UtiliCorp United, Inc., Lead Economist

Resource Management International, Executive Consultant

QED Research, Inc., Principal

San Diego Gas and Electric Company, Senior Economist

Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Energy Economist

Education

Ph.D. – Economics, University of California, San Diego

M.A. – Mathematics, University of California, San Diego

B.A. – Mathematics and Chemistry, University of California, San Diego

Estimation of Economics Damages

Estimated revenues and profits for the Kansas City Franchise of Robert Half for several new lines of business that they were not allowed to offer. Matched occupations to each line of business and used employment statistics for those occupations to model revenues and expenses in other cities. Then used the model to estimate past and future revenues and expenses for KC. Also estimated revenues for another city in their franchise area that would have been profitable had they been allowed to carry the new lines.

UtiliCorp v. GE. After a power plant explosion, UCU claimed that it had to buy expensive power on the spot market. Analyzed power contracts and trading data to determine whether these purchases were used to supply local customers or resold for a profit.

MDL 551 and Chemical Bank v. Benton PUD, et al. Managed a team of academic economists in a multi-billion dollar securities fraud case charging inadequate disclosure in bond prospectuses. Worked with top law firms from around the county to establish theories of liability, review and organize documents, interview potential experts, conduct statistical analyses, review pleadings, assist in taking depositions, review testimony, and coordinate activities with other groups of experts. Written commendation was obtained from counsel.

For use in personal injury litigation, developed models to estimate the probability of vehicle accidents at railroad crossings given traffic volumes and crossing characteristics. Logit models (logistic regressions) were developed for accidents, injuries and fatalities using the National Highway-Rail Crossing Inventory and Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident/Incident databases obtained from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration.

For use in personal injury litigation, developed models to forecast probabilities of full time employment for individuals who abuse drugs or alcohol given monthly usage and demographic characteristics. A logit model was developed using responses to the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

For use in personal injury litigation, developed models to forecast probabilities of full time employment for individuals with spinal cord injuries given degree of injury and demographic characteristics. A logit model was developed using the National Spinal Cord Injury Database.

Happy Tours v. NYEX. Estimated lost business revenues in a civil suit and testified on the results.

Developed a model to analyze portfolio risk in venture capital funds for a client in a civil suit.

Estimated lost profits to a distributor of building materials when his contract with the manufacturer was wrongfully terminated.

Nevada Power Company v Monsanto Company, et al, Case No. CV-S-89-555, U.S. District Court, Nevada. Used a database of information about all transformers on the electric grid to determine the remaining useful life of transformers that had to be replaced because of PCB contamination.

Bluebonnet Savings Bank v Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Case No. CA3-91-1066-X, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Texas Dallas Division. Used cluster analysis to associate an S&L to similar institutions so that market value could be determined. Also modeled market to book ratios for a group of publicly traded S&Ls.

Cape Mobile Home Mart v. Security Pacific Housing (Franklin County, MO). Critiqued analysis of lost sales revenues and developed an alternative analysis.

FoxMeyer v. Smith Drug Company (Circuit Court of Jackson County MO). Estimated lost revenues. 1995.

Mt. Carmel Medical Center. Critiqued a audit conducted by Kansas on a sample of Medicaid claims submitted by the Center. Determined that inappropriate sampling procedures were used in the audit. Identified which procedures should have been used. Performed a similar analysis for Oak Hill Hospital.

Analysis and Testimony for Regulatory Filings

Reviewed demand forecasts of over 70 electric and natural gas utilities for commissions, utilities, and attorneys.

Oklahoma Corporation Commission, Cause PUD No. 000600. Reviewed forecasts of OG&E and Smith Cogeneration to determine avoided cost rates for cogeneration facilities.

For the City of Memphis, projected the electric rates of TVA, and assisted in contract renewal negotiations. Integrated models of electric demand, revenue requirements, and production costs; and projected rates under various scenarios based on economic growth, costs to complete nuclear projects, and cost to comply with acid rain compliance regulation.

For Florida Power and Light, analyzed survey responses to prepare a graphics based report that summarized appliance stocks and household characteristics. Used these results to construct input files for REEPS, an end-use forecasting model.

Developed conditional demand models to determine appliance specific energy consumption rates and load profiles for households and commercial buildings. Studies were conducted for PG&E, FPL, SDG&E, BC Hydro and EPRI. Taught utility staff how to conduct conditional demand analysis.

To support Florida Power & Light’s DSM planning efforts, specified and estimated penetration models for 12 energy conservation measures. The probabilities for the adoption of each measure were estimated using a Logit specification based on household income, demographic characteristics, weather, and appliance ownership and fuel types.

Built econometric models to forecast natural gas and electric sales and peak demands for many utilities. In several projects, developed simple models for inclusion in computer spreadsheets, and in many other projects, simulated loads based on long historical weather histories and economic scenarios to develop probabilistic confidence bands.

Adapted end-use forecasting models to utility service areas, incorporating data on appliance saturations and energy consumption rates, demographics, and economics.

For Wisconsin Electric, conducted a billing analysis to measure savings from the Appliance Turn-In Program for refrigerators, freezers and room air conditioners. Based on a customer survey, measured free ridership rates and modeled the long-run impacts of the program on appliance penetrations.

For Burlington Electric in Vermont, conducted a billing analysis to measure savings for the Neighbor $ave and Smart Light programs. Applied advanced econometric techniques to measure significant levels of savings.

For the South Carolina Public Service Authority, measured net energy savings from the Good Cents conservation program available to both new construction and retrofitted homes. Modeled monthly billed consumption, accounting for appliance stocks, demographic characteristics and Good Cents certification.

For EPRI, developed the Commercial Sector Demand Side Management Impact Assessment, computer software and report.

Strategic Planning

Cooperated with supply planning engineers to evaluate the economic feasibility of expanding a transmission and distribution system. Built a model to simulate peak energy demand using 108 years of weather data and assisted supply planners in using the results of this model to simulate outage costs with a system planning model.

For a large municipal utility, managed a gas supply options study to 1) forecast daily loads under various economic and weather scenarios, 2) forecast gas prices and evaluate pipeline companies, and 3) develop a model to evaluate option portfolios which included LNG, under ground storage, long-term pipeline contracts, and gas purchased on spot markets. Made specific recommendations.

Specified and estimated a travel cost model to measure the consumer surplus of recreators at lakes and reservoirs in California. Coauthored written testimony to the State Water Resources Board.

Testimony in Employment and Housing Discrimination Cases

Various Plaintiffs v. Insurance Services Organization (Los Angeles County). .Expert for the defendant in an age discrimination case involving layoffs. Analyzed a large computerized personnel database using the logit model to measure the impacts of multiple factors in determining the probability of layoffs during a reduction in force.

Beverley Frias et al. v. Wells Fargo Bank, No. 845131, Superior Court of CA, County of San Francisco. Reviewed materials that were prepared by a defense expert and advised plaintiff attorneys.

Robert B. Cyr v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours Company, No. 282681, Superior Court of the State of CA, County of Contra Costa. Expert for plaintiff in age discrimination during in employment terminations. Assisted attorneys in requesting data and conducted statistical tests.

Citizens for Fair Housing v. Westwood Investors, et al., No. 612100, Superior Court of the State of CA, County of Santa Clara. Witness for the defendant on disparate impact of occupancy rules on minorities and families with children. Analyzed micro data from the Census Bureau to measure the impact of occupancy rules on racial minorities and families with children. Conducted several hypothesis tests. Wrote a declaration and testified in a deposition.

Shands and Villarreal v. San Jose Hospital (Santa Clara County).

Expert for defendant. Disparate treatment of minorities in employment terminations. Examined reports filed with the EEOC and conducted statistical tests. Case settled.

H. Robert Lee v. Wells Fargo Bank, No. 876373, Superior Court of CA County of San Francisco.

Expert for plaintiff. Analyzed reports filed with the EEOC and personnel data for managers to determine if age or race was a factor in making layoffs after a large bank merger. Tested hypotheses using the hypergeometric distribution.

Williams v. Children’s Hospital (Alameda County). Advised defendant attorney on the usefulness of data in a race and gender discrimination case.

Clayton Bloomfield v. Wallace International Silversmiths, Inc., No. C 89-20124 RPA, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. For defendant, reviewed plaintiff’s expert’s testimony on age discriminate in employment termination, tested for bias using the hypergeometric distribution and testified in deposition.

Max Weijnschenk v. Bechtel Petroleum Inc., No. 837158, Superior Court of the State of CA, City and County of San Francisco. Witness for plaintiff. Determined if there was bias against older workers during a period of mass layoffs. Critiqued opposing expert’s testimony. Testified in deposition and court.

Louis B. Bono v. Quaker Oats Co. et al., No. 328405, Superior Court of the State of CA, County of San Mateo. Witness for the plaintiff in an age discrimination case involving layoffs after a corporate merger. Critiqued defense expert’s analysis and testified in a deposition.

Roper v. Western Shower Door (Contra Costa County). Witness for defendant. Analyzed personnel data to determine if age was a factor in making layoffs.

Lisa Reginato et al. v. North American Title Company, Case No. C 90-00723, Superior Court for the State of CA for the County of Contra Costa. Expert for plaintiffs in a gender discrimination case. Performed statistical test of discrimination

Jeannine Buchanan, et al. v. Sizeler Real Estate of Alabama, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Alabama, Southern District. For defendant, testified on plaintiff expert’s statistical analysis of racial bias in tenant selection at four apartment complexes. Analyzed a 5% sample of census data to determine the racial mix of renters in similar housing units located in the metro area.

Darnisha Jackson et al. v. Delaney Development et al., No. 99-CV-865-RV-S, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Alabama, Southern District. For defendant, critiqued plaintiff expert’s report alleging racial bias in tenant selection for five apartment complexes. Analyzed a subsample of census records from the local area to define a pool from which tenants might be selected and showed that minority representation in the pool was lower than that the plaintiff’s claimed in the complexes.

Ronald Gerlib et al., v. R. R. Donnelley and Sons Company, No. 95C 7401, U.S. District Court For The Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division. In my report, critiqued plaintiffs’ expert report which alleged age discrimination in employee transfers to other company divisions following a plant closing.

Selected Publications, Reports and Presentations

“Disability and Worklife: The Case of Spinal Cord Injury,” with C. Pflaum, D. Strauss, R. Shavelle, and M. DeVivo. Submitted to the Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, January 2004.

“Measuring the Effects of Disability on Employment and Earnings” January 3, 2004. Presented to the Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting at the Session “The Use and Misuse of Worklife Expectancy Tables: Theoretical and Measurement Issues,” San Diego, CA.

“Statistical Correlation Of Degree Days With CO2 Concentrations,” 1999. Used regressions to test whether global CO2 concentrations are statistically significant in explaining heating degree days trends over 5 decades.

“Does Hedging Natural Gas Distribution Revenues Affect Stock Prices?” 1998. Used an annual time series cross section of financial statistics from S&P’s Utility Compustat and ValueLine to model stock prices. Data on hedging was obtained from an American Gas Association survey. Contrary to financial theory, the results showed that a utility’s stock price was 11 % higher if hedged.

“Productivity Improvements In The Electric Utility Industry”, 1997. Combined financial data for utilities from RDI’s PowerDat, UDI, and S&P’s Utility Compustat and then developed econometric production models. Concluded that recent increases in productivity had resulted from large declines in labor intensity that was unlikely to be sustained. Compared UtiliCorp’s productivity to that of similar utilities.

“Economic Value Creation in Regulated and Competitive Industries,” presented at the Advanced Workshop in Regulation and Public Utility Economics, Rutgers School of Management, Center for Research in Regulated Industries, July 1997. Determined whether EVA was important in determining total returns on utility stocks.

“A Review of TVA’s 1994 Electric Load Forecast,” for TVA’s IRP Review Group, 1995.

“New Forecasting Methods for Competitive Markets,” presentation to the EEI Economics Committee, January 1995.

“A Review of the NEPOOL Load Forecasting Model,” for Bangor-Hydro Electric Co., 1993.

“Applications of Logit Analysis in Civil Litigation,” Journal of Legal Economics, 1993.

“1993 Load Forecast”, report to Santee Cooper.

“Examination of Possible Jury Attitudes in the Pacific Northwest,” 1992.

“A Review of Austin’s 1992 Electric Load Forecasts,” for the City of Austin Power & Light, 1992.

“1990 Home Energy Survey”, for Florida Power and Light (FPL), 1992.

“A Conditional Demand Analysis of the 1990 Home Energy Survey,” for FPL, 1992.

“Natural Gas Supply Options Study,” for Memphis Light, Gas and Water (MLGW), 1991.

“Commercial Energy Use Intensities,” for BC Hydro, 1990.

“Projections of TVA’s Electric Rates,” for MLGW, 1990.

“Projections of the Utility Environment,” for MLGW, 1989.

“Analysis of Southern California Gas Company Service Reliability Under the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s Clean Fuels Policy”, for SCAQMD, with William Wade, et al, 1989.

“COMPACT: Commercial Sector Demand Side Management Impact Assessment,” computer software and report for EPRI, 1988.

“Resource Needs and Avoided Costs of Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company,” report and testimony with Ronald Knecht and Richard McCann, 1988.

“Estimating Recreation Benefits for Instream and Diverted Uses of Waterflows of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Watershed,” with William Wade, et al, presented to the W-133 Committee Meeting, Outdoor Recreation and The Public Interest, January 1988.

“Economic Evaluation of the Freshwater Recreation Uses of the Facilities of the State Water Project Reservoirs,” with William Wade, et al, State Water Contractors Exhibit 65 to the California State Water Resources Control Board Bay-Delta Hearing, 1987.

“Estimation of Energy Intensity by End Use for Commercial Buildings,” Energy, with Isaac Turiel et al, 1987.

“A Conditional Demand Analysis of Hourly Household Loads,” for Florida Power and Light Company, 1987.

“Commercial Energy Utilization Indices in SDG&E’s Service Territory,” for San Diego Gas and Electric Company, 1987.

“Economic Evaluation of the Recreation Resources of the State Water Project”, for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, 1987.

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